Hints of progress emerge, leading to hope that the lockout, in its 119th day, will be resolved soon.
Then, collective bargaining negotiations break down and NBA executives and union leaders profess they are far apart on several issues.
The apt analogy right now is from Peanuts, the Charles Schultz cartoon. When Charlie Brown goes to kick a field goal, Lucy pulls the football away just as C. Brown goes to kick it.
Is that what will happen this time in the NBA?
Maybe, maybe not.
As much as NBA Commissioner David Stern and National Basketball Players Association president Derek Fisher admitted there was progress after Wednesday's 15-hour session ended in the wee hours of Thursday, they wouldn't gauge the amount of progress — nor did they say whatever progress was made means a deal is imminent.
"I would say there's no question that today was a better day than last Thursday," Deputy Commissioner Adam Silver told reporters in a Manhattan hotel around 4 a.m. Thursday. "I think it's too early, not just in the morning, but still in the negotiations to express confidence that we're at a deal. There's no question, though, that we did make progress on some significant issues. But there are still some very significant issues left."
Fisher said: "We can't say that major progress was made in any way, but there was some progress on some of our system issues. … We'll continue to work through as long as we possibly can and as hard as we possibly can to see if we can get a deal done. But we're not going to get ahead of ourselves at this point."
The sides resumed meeting Thursday shortly after 2 p.m. ET.
Guarded optimism with deliberate caution.
"There's no deal on anything unless there's a deal on everything," Stern said.
Plus, there was no discussion regarding the split of basketball-related income (BRI), which led to the breakdown in talks Oct. 20 with federal mediator George Cohen involved. Stern missed that bargaining session with the flu, leading him to joke, "I leave these guys alone for a little bit of time and all hell breaks loose."
The focus of the Wednesday/Thursday session was on system issues: the salary cap/luxury tax, the length of player contracts, annual player raises, exceptions to the salary cap (such as the mid-level player exception and Bird rights) and amnesty provisions which would allow clubs to waive a player without his salary counting against the salary cap.
It wouldn't be a surprise if progress was made on some issues. They were close enough on some two weeks ago that a compromise is plausible.
It's the salary cap/luxury tax system that is difficult to navigate. "Our luxury tax system and rates are a big part of our discussions," Fisher said.
The league wanted a hard salary cap with no exceptions to exceed it, but backed off that because players oppose a hard cap at all costs. However, the NBA is adamant in creating a system in which the discrepancy between the highest-spending and lowest-spending clubs is not in the $50 million-$70 million range. The league believes the smaller the spending game, the greater chance for increased competitive balance.
In the last CBA, clubs over the luxury threshold paid a dollar tax for each dollar over the salary cap. For example, the tax threshold was $70.3 million last season — and the Los Angeles Lakers' player payroll was $90.3 million. The Lakers' tax bill was $20 million, for a total of $110 million. The Sacramento Kings spent $44.3 million total on their player payroll.
Addressing players' concern about a hard cap with no exceptions, the league this month suggested a punitive tax system. It was an escalating tax system:
•For the first $5 million over the cap, a club would pay $1.75 for every dollar over;
•For the next $5 million over the cap, a club would pay $2.25 for every dollar over;
•For the next $5 million over the cap, a club would pay $2.75 for every dollar over;
•And for the next $5 million over the cap, a club would pay $3.25 for each dollar over.
Given the Lakers' $90 million payroll, that system would have amounted to a $50 million tax bill, a total of $140 million.
The union balked at the tax rate, arguing it served, in essence, as a hard cap and that even Lakers owner Jerry Buss would not pay it, especially as it is expected he will contribute more to the league's new revenue-sharing plan.
They sides are trying to find some common ground on that tax issue. But even if they find an agreement on that issue, that still leaves the split of BRI to negotiate.
The salary cap/luxury tax system won't work if the sides can't agree on the split. Last week, the owners fixed on a 50-50 split and the players hovered at 52.5%, a difference of about $100 million a season and $1 billion over the course of a 10-year deal.
Players received 57% of BRI last season. But with the league stating about $650 million in losses the past two seasons, it wants a greater share of the pie to not only break even but also to profit. Players have already conceded about $180 million annually, compared to last season, and feel they have addressed owners' economic concerns.
"Sometimes that's what makes it tough to really try to finalize the system in a complete way," Fisher said. "Because without knowing what the final split will be, sometimes it makes it tougher to work through a tax system."
